Prognostics

Definition

Prognostics is an engineering discipline focused on predicting the time at which a system or component will no longer perform its intended function. The core objective is to calculate Remaining Useful Life (RUL), enabling proactive responses before failures occur.

Manufacturing Applications

Core of Predictive Maintenance

Prognostics enables Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) in manufacturing:

• Predicted failure timing for planned component replacement
• Minimized unplanned downtime
• Optimized maintenance costs

AI-Driven Approaches

Manufacturing AI implements prognostics through three methods:

• Data-driven: Machine learning models trained on historical failure and sensor data
• Model-based: Life prediction using physical degradation models
• Hybrid: Combining both approaches for enhanced accuracy

Real-World Examples

• Machine tools: Predicting spindle bearing replacement timing through vibration/temperature analysis
• Semiconductors: Estimating chamber component degradation to maintain process quality
• Automotive: Calculating robot arm remaining life to prevent line stoppages

PHM (Prognostics and Health Management) systems provide integrated operations, comprehensively managing equipment health status as a standard in modern smart factories.